As arrears remain high, understanding what drives risk - and how to anticipate it - is more important than ever. The 2024 Global Collections Survey from RO-AR.com, sponsored by EXUS, offers timely insights into how organisations are adapting their predictive strategies to stay ahead.
Segmentation: A clear divide in readiness
One of the most telling findings? Just 57.8% of organisations segment their collections workflows based on borrower profiles and predictive indicators. That means nearly one in three firms are still operating with minimal or no segmentation at all.
This matters - because segmentation is what allows lenders to move from reactive recovery to proactive intervention. By grouping accounts based on behaviour, risk exposure, and customer needs, organisations can tailor strategies, improve engagement, and ultimately, collect more efficiently.
What are the top indicators of arrears risk?
Organisations that are leading the way in predictive analytics are tracking a mix of micro- and macro-level indicators:
This transition to broader data usage reflects a shift in mindset: from tracking what’s already gone wrong to identifying early warning signs.
Risk evolution: 2023 vs. 2024
The survey also highlighted how the key risk signals have evolved:
2023 key risk indicators 2024 key risk indicators
| Rising missed payments & defaults | Recent missed payments |
| Shifts in household income | Financial strain on the ‘squeezed middle’ |
| Increased requests for payment holidays | Rising unemployment |
| Inconsistent payment patterns | Mortgage failures |
| More loan withdrawals | High-balance debt concerns |
| Macroeconomic risks | Declining refinancing options |
| Communication challenges | Higher credit utilisation |
The 2024 risks reflect a growing pressure on middle-income households, with refinancing drying up and credit balances increasing. These signals suggest not just stress - but reduced options for consumers to manage it.
How EXUS supports predictive, intelligent collections
At EXUS, we build solutions that enable early intervention. Our collections platform empowers clients to:
With insight from three decades of global work, EXUS gives you the tools to see risk earlier - and act faster.
Explore how we help you predict and prevent arrears.
Download the full 2025 Global Collections and Recoveries report